“Horror Month” September, my ass! In the month ending today, the Dax gained a good 450 points, i.e. around 3.7 percent. Statistically, September is one of the worst stock market months ever. Is golden October coming now?
Trump heets up trade dispute again
This is likely to depend above all on the long-running issue of the trade dispute between the USA and China. The new round of negotiations will begin on 10 October. Now, the signs are pointing to conflict rather than easing. The US government’s plan to exclude Chinese companies from the financial market continues to cause a stir, even though the US Treasury has rejected it. The threat, however, has great potential for danger for the Chinese companies affected in case of doubt, said Thomas Altmann, portfolio manager at QC Partners Asset Management. “US President Donald Trump should thus try to bring the Chinese side into line before the trade talks in the coming weeks”.
Stock markets on a crawl
Investors are holding back towards the end of the month in the face of new trump threats. The Dax is stagnating at just under 12,400 points. Wall Street should also be quiet. The broker IG rated the Dow around an hour before the start of the trading session a moderate 0.1 percent higher to 26,850 points. After the first shock on Friday evening, Wall Street seems to be asserting that the possible ban on Chinese equities could simply be a new negotiating tactic, a new means of pressure on the part of the US President.
Euro falls below 1.09 dollar
The euro slips to below 1.09 dollars, its lowest level since mid-2017. The reason given is that the leading economic research institutes are expected to lower their growth forecasts for Germany. Economic output will grow by 0.5 percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2020, insiders said. In the spring, there was still talk of 0.8 percent and 1.8 percent growth.
Oil prices on the retreat
The price of oil continues to fall. The Brent variety falls below 61 dollars per barrel. The situation on the oil market has calmed down somewhat. Two weeks ago, prices had risen sharply following heavy attacks on Saudi oil plants. Most of these premiums have now disappeared again. This is explained on the market by reports that Saudi Arabia has largely restored its production capacities.
Gold shines less brightly
Gold is also becoming cheaper. A troy ounce (31 grams) costs 1482.85 dollars at the beginning of the week, one percent less than on Friday and as little as not since mid-August. Alexander Zumpfe, an expert at gold trader Heraeus, said that the gold price was a driver of the trade conflict. The precious metal reacted with losses to the fact that the suspension of the stock exchange listing of Chinese companies in the USA was initially off the table. “However, it is questionable whether the downward trend will continue – the fundamental uncertainty has not changed.